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    Exit & Liquidation

    Liquidation Waterfall Modeling: A Step-by-Step Guide to Calculating Exit Proceeds

    A liquidation waterfall model is the spreadsheet that tells you what every shareholder actually receives at exit. The mechanics are straightforward but unforgiving — small differences in preference multiples, participation status, and conversion decisions can swing individual payouts by millions of euros. This guide walks through the methodology in full and applies it to three distinct exit scenarios so you can build your own model with confidence.

    Step-by-Step Methodology

    Building a waterfall model proceeds in five steps. Skip any step and the output is unreliable.

    Step 1 — Inventory all securities. List every share class (Common, each Preferred class), every debt instrument outstanding, every warrant, every convertible. For each, record: shareholder, original investment amount, original price per share, current share count, conversion ratio (after any anti-dilution adjustments), liquidation preference multiple, participation status (participating / non-participating), participation cap (if any), accrued dividends (if any), seniority rank.

    Step 2 — Determine seniority ordering. Debt is always paid first (in seniority order within debt). Then preferred in the order defined by the shareholders' agreement — typically most-recent round first ('Series B is senior to Series A is senior to Seed') but sometimes pari passu (all preferred ranks equally). Then common.

    Step 3 — Calculate the preference payment for each preferred class. Preference = multiple × original investment + accrued dividends. The total preference stack is the sum of all preferred preferences.

    Step 4 — Determine conversion decisions per class. For each non-participating preferred class, calculate the conversion threshold: at what exit price does taking the preference equal taking pro-rata common? Below the threshold, take the preference. Above, convert to common.

    Step 5 — Distribute proceeds tier by tier. Debt first. Then senior preferred (preference path). Then junior preferred. Then participating preferred secondary distribution. Then common (including converted preferred).

    The output is a payout table showing each shareholder's net receipt and effective return multiple (cash-on-cash). The same waterfall executed across multiple exit prices produces a sensitivity table — the most useful output for board discussions about acquisition offers.

    Cap Table for the Worked Examples

    Four holder classes used throughout the three scenarios below:

    • Seed Convertible Note: €500K invested, converted at Series A at the cap. Converted to 250,000 Series Seed Preferred at €2.00/share. 1× non-participating preference. Seniority rank: 3 (most junior preferred). • Series A: €4M invested at €2.00/share = 2,000,000 Series A Preferred. 1× non-participating preference. Seniority rank: 2. • Series B: €10M invested at €5.00/share = 2,000,000 Series B Preferred. 1× participating preferred capped at 3× return. Seniority rank: 1 (most senior). • Common: founders + employees + cancelled-options recipients = 4,500,000 Common shares.

    Total fully diluted: 250,000 + 2,000,000 + 2,000,000 + 4,500,000 = 8,750,000 shares. Total preference stack: €0.5M + €4M + €10M = €14.5M. No debt outstanding. No accrued dividends. Straightforward worked case.

    Scenario 1 — €5M Acqui-Hire

    Exit price: €5M. Total proceeds available: €5M.

    Step 1 — Pay debt: €0 outstanding. Remaining: €5M.

    Step 2 — Senior preferred (Series B) preference path: preference = €10M, but only €5M is available. Series B takes €5M of preference; €5M of preference remains unpaid. Remaining: €0.

    Step 3 — Series A preference: €0 available. Series A receives €0.

    Step 4 — Series Seed preference: €0 available. Series Seed receives €0.

    Step 5 — Common distribution: €0 available. Common receives €0.

    Step 6 — Convert decision check. None of the non-participating classes would convert (conversion would yield even less than the partial preference they received). Series B does not convert because the participation right is on top of the preference, not in lieu of it.

    Final payout: • Series B: €5M (vs. €10M invested = 0.5× return) • Series A: €0 (vs. €4M invested = 0× return) • Series Seed: €0 (vs. €0.5M invested = 0× return) • Common: €0 (founders + employees receive nothing)

    This is the brutal acqui-hire scenario. The preference stack consumes everything; common receives zero. Founders walk away with whatever ongoing compensation is negotiated with the acquirer plus any retention grants. The €5M sale headline hides the reality that the founding team has lost their equity entirely.

    Common receives zero — this happens more often than founders expect
    For common to receive any proceeds, total exit must exceed the preference stack (€14.5M in this cap table). Exits below the preference stack are common-zero scenarios. Market data: roughly 40% of European venture-backed exits between 2020-2024 returned less than 2× the total capital raised. For companies with substantial preference stacks (€10M+ raised), this means common shareholders received nothing in the majority of exit events. The defence is awareness at term sheet time: 1× non-participating preference (vs. participating) and 1× preference multiple (vs. 2× or 3×) keep the preference stack proportional to capital raised, preserving common upside at moderate exits.

    Scenario 2 — €20M Trade Sale

    Exit price: €20M. Total proceeds available: €20M.

    Step 1 — Pay debt: €0. Remaining: €20M.

    Step 2 — Senior preferred (Series B) preference path: preference = €10M. Series B takes €10M. Remaining: €10M.

    Step 3 — Series A preference: €4M. Series A takes €4M. Remaining: €6M.

    Step 4 — Series Seed preference: €0.5M. Series Seed takes €0.5M. Remaining: €5.5M.

    Step 5 — Series B participation (the 'second dip' on participating preferred): Series B participates pro rata with common in the remaining proceeds, capped at 3× total return (€30M cap). Series B's pro-rata share of common-equivalent: 2,000,000 / (2,000,000 Series B + 4,500,000 Common) = 30.8%. Series B participation: 30.8% × €5.5M = €1.69M. Series B total so far: €10M + €1.69M = €11.69M (well under the €30M cap; participation is not capped out).

    Step 6 — Common distribution of the rest: €5.5M - €1.69M = €3.81M distributed pro rata to common (4,500,000 / 6,500,000 of remaining = 69.2% basis). Common receives €3.81M.

    Step 7 — Convert decision check. Series A non-participating: pro-rata at €20M = €4.57M; preference = €4M. Wait — pro-rata is higher than preference. Series A should convert.

    Restart with Series A conversion: • Series A converts to 2,000,000 Common. Total Common-equivalent: 4,500,000 + 2,000,000 = 6,500,000. • Series B preference: €10M. Remaining: €10M. • Series Seed preference: €0.5M. Remaining: €9.5M. • Series B participation pro-rata: 2,000,000 / (2,000,000 + 6,500,000) = 23.5%. Participation: 23.5% × €9.5M = €2.23M. Series B total: €12.23M (under cap). • Remaining for common-equivalent: €9.5M - €2.23M = €7.27M. Distributed to 6,500,000 common (incl. converted A): per-share €1.12. - Series A converted: 2,000,000 × €1.12 = €2.24M. Worse than €4M preference. Series A should NOT convert.

    Series A keeps preference. Final payout table: • Series B: €10M preference + €1.69M participation = €11.69M • Series A: €4M preference • Series Seed: €0.5M preference • Common (4,500,000): €3.81M total = €0.847/share

    Founders + employees split €3.81M out of a €20M exit. The €14.5M preference stack consumed 72.5% of the exit. Series B's participation right consumed another €1.69M. Common received 19% of the exit despite owning 51% of the fully diluted cap table.

    Scenario 3 — €80M Strategic Exit

    Exit price: €80M. Total proceeds available: €80M.

    Step 1 — Pay debt: €0. Remaining: €80M.

    Step 2 — Convert decision pre-check. At €80M, every non-participating preferred is significantly better off converting. Check: • Series A: preference €4M, pro-rata if converted = 2M / 8.75M × €80M = €18.3M. Convert. • Series Seed: preference €0.5M, pro-rata if converted = 250K / 8.75M × €80M = €2.3M. Convert. • Series B: keeps participating preferred regardless (no conversion decision — participating preferred always takes both).

    Step 3 — Series B preference: €10M. Remaining: €70M.

    Step 4 — Series B participation pro-rata: Series B = 2M, Common (incl. converted A and Seed) = 4.5M + 2M + 250K = 6.75M. Series B's share: 2M / (2M + 6.75M) = 22.9%. Participation: 22.9% × €70M = €16.0M.

    Step 5 — Series B total: €10M + €16.0M = €26.0M. Cap is 3× = €30M. Under cap, full participation applies.

    Step 6 — Remaining €70M - €16.0M = €54M distributed to common-equivalent (6.75M shares) = €8.00/share. • Common: 4,500,000 × €8.00 = €36M • Series A (converted): 2,000,000 × €8.00 = €16M • Series Seed (converted): 250,000 × €8.00 = €2M

    Final payout table: • Series B: €26M (vs. €10M invested = 2.6× return) • Series A: €16M (vs. €4M invested = 4.0× return) • Series Seed: €2M (vs. €0.5M invested = 4.0× return) • Common: €36M (founders + employees)

    This is the upside scenario every founder is working toward. At €80M, all classes are paid in full and proportionally, the participation right has minor impact, and common captures the largest share. The conversion decision for Series A and Seed is the key mechanic — without it, they would receive their small preference amounts and leave most of the upside to common.

    For a complete operational view of these mechanics, see [exit waterfall](/captable/exit-waterfall), [liquidation preference](/captable/liquidation-preference), [participating preferred](/captable/participating-preferred), [waterfall breakeven](/captable/waterfall-breakeven), and [preference stack](/captable/preference-stack).

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