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    Valuation Guide

    VC return expectations — the fund math that drives every valuation negotiation

    Every term sheet is the output of a VC's return model. Understanding that model — how funds are structured, what return multiples they need, and how power law shapes their portfolio strategy — tells you exactly what growth rate you're implicitly committing to when you accept a term sheet. This is the math CAPLINK's Fundraising Calculator makes visible.

    Calculate the exact growth rate your valuation implies with CAPLINK's Fundraising Calculator.

    How VC funds work

    A typical VC fund raises capital from limited partners (LPs) — pension funds, endowments, family offices — and invests over a 3–5 year deployment period. The fund has a 10-year life (often extended). The VC earns a 2% annual management fee on committed capital and 20% carried interest on profits above the hurdle rate. To return the fund to LPs, the portfolio must collectively generate enough exits. A $100M fund needs to return $200–$300M to deliver a 2–3x net return to LPs — which is considered good but not exceptional. Top-tier funds target 3–5x net.

    The power law and its implications for your deal

    VC returns follow a power law: the top 1–2 investments in a portfolio return more than the entire rest of the portfolio combined. This means VCs are not looking for companies that return 3x — they're looking for companies that can return 50–100x. A $5M investment at Series A needs to be worth $250–500M at exit to be a "fund returner" for a $100M fund. If your company can't credibly reach that outcome, institutional VCs are structurally unable to get excited — regardless of how good the business is.

    What money multiple and CAGR mean for you

    If a VC invests at a $10M post-money valuation and needs a 20x return, they need the company to be worth $200M at exit. If the expected time to exit is 7 years, the required CAGR is ($200M/$10M)^(1/7) - 1 = 52% per year. That's what's implicit in the term sheet. CAPLINK's Fundraising Calculator computes this for your specific numbers — so you can evaluate whether the implied growth rate is achievable before you sign.

    Stage-specific return expectations

    Pre-Seed / Seed VCs: need 30–50x on their winners to return the fund. This means they're taking more risk and accepting more failures. Series A VCs: need 10–20x. They're investing in companies with some proof but still significant execution risk. Series B and beyond: 5–10x. Lower multiple requirement, larger check, more capital efficiency expected. The earlier the stage, the higher the required multiple — which is why early investors push for lower valuations and take more dilution.

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